Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
