Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
